A simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency vehicle base locations: development, validation, and usage.

This paper describes our experiences in developing a simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency response vehicle base locations. The project was undertaken jointly by the University of Arizona and the Tucson Fire Department. The issues of model development, data collection, model validation, and experimentation are discussed. The critical nature of the problem and the clients' lack of experience with mathematical models, made model validation the major step in gaining user acceptance. We show that looking solely at standard performance statistics such as the calls successfully serviced, may lead to the acceptance of an invalid model. We also show that the high level of detail used in many simulation models for evaluating base locations is unnecessary in the current case. An analysis evaluating two alternative sets of locations for the Tucson system is discussed.     

Effects of the state trade countries upon the commodity markets

This article proves that a good deal is to be said for an abandonment by the state trade countries of their financial abstention and for their active financial participation in the Integrated Programme for Commodities. At UNCTAD IV in Nairobi the Third World nations first presented their requests to the state trade countries, in an unmistakable manner, for more extensive development-policy contributions.     

Bovine Brucellosis Programs: An Economic/Epidemiologic Analysis

This report analyzes the economic and epidemiologic impact of eight alternative bovine brucellosis programs in terms of their costs and benefits to society, consumers, producers and related agricultural industries. BRUSIM, a systems simulation model, was developed to measure the impact of various program components upon selected epidemiologic parameters and for determining associated costs and physical losses of brucellosis control/eradication programs for 1976 through 2005. The United States was delineated into 16 regions based upon such factors as prevalence, producer characteristics and cattle population. TECHSIM, an econometric model, was used for determining the total and net benefits accruing to society, consumers, producers, and related industries as a result of changes in beef and milk losses from alternative programs compared to a base program. The discounted values and associated program costs were used for determining benefit/cost ratios and related economic decision criteria. Cette étude analyse le choc économique et épidémiologique de huit programmes alternatifs de la brucellose pour bovine en termes de leurs coûts et avantages pour la société, les consommateurs, les producteurs et les industries agricoles reliées. BRUSIM, un modèle de simulation de système, a été développé pour mesurer le choc de divers composants d' un programme sur les paramètres épidémiologiques choisis et pour déterminer les coûts associés et les pertes physiques des programmes de contrôle ou d' éradication de la brucellose de l' année 1976 à travers 2005. Les Etats-Unis ont été divisés en 16 régions dependant des facteurs tels que la prévalance, les caractéristiques de producteur et la population de bétail. TECHSIM, un modèle économétrique, a été utilisé pour déterminer les bénéfices totals et nets que retirent la société, les consommateurs, les producteurs, et les industries reliées à cause des changements dans les pertes de rendement de viande et de lait dû aux programmes alternatifs en comparaison avec le programme de base. Les valeurs escomptées et les coûts associés des programmes ont été utilisés pour déterminer les rapports coûts-bénéfices et les critères de décisions économiques reliés.     

Comparative statics of a two-country capital/money model

This paper presents a two country version of James Tobin's capital/money model, with international trade and capital transactions. The model is used to derive comparative static properties of financial market equilibrium under four alternative regimes: fixed or flexible exchange rates combined with a pegged foreign government interest rate or a fixed supply of foreign government debt. The comparative static results derived by Tobin for a closed economy, and by William Branson for a small country with an open economy, are preserved in the model developed here only in the case where both the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate are pegged. The reasons for this are explored.     

Economic relations with newly industrialising countries

It is often maintained, with reference to the increasing competition from newly industrialising countries, that Western support for the development of LDCs' economies would only amount to supplying the rope with which one will later be hanged. Our author argues that, contrary to that opinion, the coming into existence of NICs should be looked upon not as a threat, but as a chance for improvement of the international division of labour and for further growth.